第三，“中国制造”没有完美的替代品。为应对301条款贸易行动所带来的市场不确定性，美国服装进口商正在使其采购基础多样化。话虽如此，很难确定一个最大的受益者 - 特别是，与一年前相比，越南，孟加拉国，北美自由贸易区和CAFTA地区的服装出口市场份额在2018年的前九个月仅略有增加。
While apparel products are not subject to the Section 301 tariff yet, the trade action nevertheless has created huge market uncertainties for U.S. fashion brands and apparel retailers. Here is how the monthly trade flow of U.S. apparel imports has reflected the impacts of the U.S.-China tariff war:
First, U.S. companies did NOT stop importing from China. Seasonally adjusted data shows that between January and September 2018, the value of U.S. apparel imports from China decreased by 0.6 percent in volume and 0.05 percent in value year on year. Despite the decline, China remained the No.1 apparel supplier for the U.S. market in the first nine months of 2018, accounting for 32.3 percent market share in value and 41.3 percent shares in quantity, only marginally dropped by 1 and 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier respectively .
Second, apparel “Made in China” are becoming even cheaper. Notably, the average unit price of U.S. apparel imports from China dropped from $2.5/SME in 2016,$2.38/SME in 2017 to $2.36/SME in the first nine months of 2018. On the one hand, this result suggests that cost concern is not the most influential factor that drives U.S. companies to source less from China. However, it is also likely that Chinese exporters are intentionally reducing their price to keep their orders and overcome the challenges caused by the Section 301.
Third, there is no perfect replacement for “Made in China”. In response to the market uncertainty created by the Section 301 trade action, U.S. apparel importers are diversifying their sourcing base. That being said, it is difficult to identify a single largest beneficiary–notably, the market shares of apparel exports from Vietnam, Bangladesh, NAFTA, and CAFTA regions only marginally increased in the first nine months of 2018 compared with a year ago.
Additionally, it remains unclear whether the section 301 trade action has benefited U.S. textile and apparel manufacturing. Data shows that in the first ten months of 2018, the production index (2012=100) of textile manufacturing in the United States slightly increased from 92.8 in 2017to 94.3. However, over the same period, the index of apparel manufacturing decreased from 73.6 to 72.4.
Looking ahead, the volume of US textile and apparel imports from China is likely to increase in the short run since U.S. importers are eager to complete their sourcing orders before the new tariff hit. Usually, companies place sourcing orders several months ahead of the selling season. However, it will be interesting to see if the trade data in the first half of 2019 will reveal the negative impact of the Section 301 action on China’s apparel exports to the U.S. market.
https://shenglufashion.com/2018/ ... ated-november-2018/
Some short remarks:
1. It is not correct to combine China with being cheap only. China is one of the few countries which is able to deliver high-quality goods in a quick and reliable way. Manufacturers there have invested a lot in equipment and people – and China has its own raw materials.
2. It is a myth that apparel brands can switch their suppliers like we change our underwear. From a certain quality level on it takes a while until a producer understands the needs of the buyer in terms of fashion, quality, social responsibility, standards, administration …. Finding professional suppliers is already difficult – changing them is far more difficult.
I feel like the import from China or in another word “Made in China” will decrease in the long run in the future. Not only because the tariffs are increasing, but also the nature of how China would like to contribute to the world is changing, from Chinese perspective. Products with lower value could be produced in countries with lower labor cast or wherever is cheaper than Made in China. And I believe that China doesn’t care about those lost orders. At the main time, China is improving its technology and other skills, which leads China to a higher level and looking for to become a developed country in the future. China might just focus on a significant part which China has the absolute advantage over it and labor intensive is no longer the absolute advantage for China I believe. We will find out.
Over the summer, I was an Assistant Buyer intern for Ross in our Home department. Towards the end of the internship is when news of the first round of tariffs had just broken out, and it created a huge frenzy in the office, especially because a lot of my department, Garden, was affected immediately. However, we source through third parties like Li & Fung, and I was able to sit in on a few conference calls with them to talk about our options. Ultimately, the factories we were working with did not want to lose our business, so they lowered their prices to compensate for the tariffs. I believe that even though people think America depends too much on China, China also depends on America, and they are going to continue to push through these tariffs in order to keep large orders to American companies. I believe that, for the foreseeable future at least, America will continue to manufacture in China.
整个夏天，我在家庭部门担任罗斯的助理采购员实习生。 实习即将结束时，第一轮关税的消息刚刚爆发，它在办公室引起了巨大的狂热，特别是因为很多我的部门，花园，立即受到影响。 然而，我们通过Li＆Fung等第三方采购，我能够与他们一起参加几个电话会议，讨论我们的选择。 最终，我们合作的工厂不想失去我们的业务，所以他们降低了价格以补偿关税。 我相信即使人们认为美国过分依赖中国，中国也依赖美国，他们将继续推行这些关税，以便向美国公司下大订单。 我相信，至少在可预见的未来，美国将继续在中国制造。
The apparel trade flow has started to find new apparel sourcing destinations, access trade flows, and learned to manage tariffs. It is extremely interesting to see how these tariff hits are currently effecting apparel sourcing because I was able to see first hand how it effects a brand. After interning at a company called Rebecca Minkoff as a public relations intern this past summer, I was able to see first hand how the sourcing, design, and financial sectors were affected by the first round of tariff hits. As it was mentioned in the reading above, sourcing managers at the company began scrambling to finish their orders ahead of time before any new tariffs hit. Our guest speaker on Monday emphasized something very important to any sector in the fashion industry. Every decision department made by individual sections of a company, will directly or indirectly effect another. For example, if a sourcing team changes where they import their apparel from, it will effect the designers and merchandisers because of pricing, textiles, and raw material and trading costs. As for China, with their prices continuing to drop, it will be hard for US to stop importing from them. These low costs will keep brands who are price conscious coming back, time and time again.
I think China’s price reaction to the section 301 tariff is very interesting but not surprising. It seems a natural reaction for China to reduce their prices in order to persuade US firms to continue producing there as the US is its number one source of business. I also believe however hat this is a short term fluctuation as Chinese firms will not be able to offer such low prices and also accommodate Chinese wage requirements. I also believe that overtime the US will not be China’s number one source of business (specifically looking at the textile and apparel industry) regardless of President Trump’s tariffs. China is becoming and increasingly advanced country and as such will move into more capital intensive industries and more firms will move as many have been to cheaper labor, I do not believe that China will hold their competitive advantage of cheap labor for very much longer.
我认为中国对301条款关税的价格反应非常有趣但不足为奇。 中国降低价格似乎是一种自然反应，以说服美国公司继续在那里生产，因为美国是其最大的商业来源。 不过，我也相信这是短期的波动，因为中国公司无法提供如此低的价格，也无法满足中国的工资要求。 我还认为，无论特朗普总统的关税如何，加班美国都不会成为中国的头号商业来源（特别是纺织和服装行业）。 中国正在成为越来越先进的国家，因此将进入更多的资本密集型行业，更多的公司将会转向更便宜的劳动力，我不相信中国将在更长的时间内保持廉价劳动力的竞争优势。
鞋材 纺织 占大宗 这个可以看深圳海关出口的大体数据 布料 鞋材 辅料等
简单点来看 你看看现在阿迪 耐克的标签就知道了 多少是来自越南产的吧
只看本文好像觉得很轻松，其实不然，作者完成得2017年美国时尚服装协会的sourcing趋势和概貌一文里，讲述了更多有关美国采购的多样性sourcing, 里面的一些数字会让你大吃一惊，看看他们需要从多少国家询价就知道订单来得实在不容易了。点读 http://link.fobshanghai.com/down ... king-Study-2017.pdf ，可以看到31页的pdf, 建议服装从业人士一定要看看。